Economics & Politics / Rural India / Tractor Industry

Indian Agriculture: Status of Monsoon 2012 and Impact on Kharif Crop – July 2012

Indian Agriculture: Status of Monsoon 2012 and Impact on Kharif Crop – July 2012

(Updated on 7th Aug’12)

Current Monsoon Status

  • Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall for the country as a whole during the period 1st June to 25th July, 2012 is 22% less than LPA.
  • Rainfall in the four broad geographical divisions of the country during the above period was
    • (-) 39% in North West India,
    • (-) 22% in Central India,
    • (-) 24% in South Peninsula and
    • (-) 9% in East & North East India.

Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country

  • Out of a total of 36 met sub-divisions, 14 met sub-divisions constituting 37% of the total area of the country have received excess / normal rainfall and the remaining 22 met sub-divisions constituting 63% of the total area of the country have received deficient/scanty rainfall.
  • Scanty rainfall met sub-divisions are Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Punjab, West Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch.
  • Rainfall was deficient by
    • (-)29% in June, 2012
    • (-) 16% during 01st – 25th July, 2012
    • Leading to a cumulative deficiency of (-) 22% up to 25th July, 2012.
  • In the past 7 weeks of monsoon season, at met sub-division level, Punjab, Haryana, Saurashtra & Kutch received deficient / scanty rainfall during all 7 weeks. West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, West UP, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala received deficient / scanty rainfall in 6 out of 7 weeks.
  • Out of 627 districts for which data was available, 55 (9%) received excess, 169 (27%) received normal, 306 (49%) received deficient and 94 (15%) received scanty rainfall. IMD has forecast 15 – 20% good rainfall next week at All-India level. As in the last week, good rainfall is expected in Eastern & Central India but rest of the country is expected to record only scattered rainfall.
  • Cumulative deficiency of (-) 22% on 25th July, 2012 is worse than the deficiency of (-) 19% recorded in the corresponding date of 2009. However, the spatial distribution of rainfall is better this year and the percentage of scanty rainfall districts (15%) are lower in 2012 as compared to 22% in 2009.

Water Storage & Availability

  • Central Water Commission monitors 84 major reservoirs in the country which have a total live capacity of 154.42 BCM at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
  • Reservoir position has improved from 19% of FRL on 19th July’12 to 24% of FRL on 26th July’12.
  • Current live storage in these reservoirs as on 26th July, 2012 was 36.32 BCM as against 66.18 BCM last year and 47.99 BCM of normal storage (average storage of the last 10 years).
  • Current year’s storage is 55% of the last year’s and 76% of the normal storage.
  • Major States reporting lower than normal storage are Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tripura, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and UP.
  • Basin level reservoir storage (with reference to average storage) was lower by
    • (-) 56% in Krishna,
    • (-) 34% in Godavari,
    • (-) 38% in Cauvery,
    • (-) 46% in West flowing rivers of South,
    • (-) 50% in Indus and
    • (-) 16% in Tapi.
    • Reservoir storage was better at 54% in Ganga, Mahi and Sabarmati each,
    • 13% in Narmada and
    • (-) 4% in Mahanadi basins.

Impact of Monsoon on Kharif Crop Sowing

  • 668 lakh ha area had been sown under various Kharif crops upto 27th July’12 as compared to sown area of 742 lakh ha upto the corresponding period of 2011.
  • Major decline (compared to last year) has been reported under
    • Rice -18.3 lakh ha
    • Coarse Cereals -34.4 lakh ha
    • Pulses -13.6 lakh ha
    • Groundnut -7.6 lakh ha
    • Cotton -7.2 lakh ha
  • However, area coverage is higher by 7.2 lakh HA in Soyabean and 1.9 lakh HA in Sugarcane this year, in comparison with last year.

Cropwise/ Statewise Sowing progress of Kharif crops

  • Rice
    • Rice is the main Kharif sown crop in India and holds a major chunk of about 68% of the total food grain produced in the Kharif season.
    • West Bengal contributes about 18-20% share in the total Rice production in India, whereas Bihar, Assam and other Northeastern states contributes more than 10% share in total Rice production in India.
    • Although, monsoon has recovered in the north eastern part of India in the last week, the overall sowing remain lower.
  • Pulses
    • Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are the main Kharif pulses producing states. According to IMD, monsoons in central and Southern parts of the country (Kharif Pulses producing regions) are expected to be 96% and 95% of the LPA respectively.
    • However, monsoon in these regions have been 34% and 28% below normal so far and this has affected sowing of Pulses to a large extent.
    • Area sown under Pulses this year is 34% lower at 3.99 lakh hectares compared to 6.08 lakh ha during the same period last year.
    • According to Andhra Pradesh Farm department, area under Pulses is down by 48.7%.
    • Going by the area under Pulses cultivation till now and the monsoon progress as of today we expect area under Pulses to remain stable or may even decline if monsoon fails to recover in the month of July.
  • Oilseeds
    • Major Kharif oilseed producing regions are Madhya Pradesh (Soybean), Gujarat (Groundnut) and Andhra Pradesh.
    • Soybean is the largest produced oilseed in India and the area under this protein crop is expected to increase this season as farmers may shift to this crop on account of higher returns earned in 2011-12season.
    • The sowing which was lagging behind due to below normal rains has recovered with advancement of monsoon in Maharashtra.
    • As on 28th June total oilseeds sowing is down by17% while area under soybean increased by 37% to 6.3 lakh hectares. Oilseeds planting would improve further once monsoon fully grips the Western, Central and Northern parts of India.
  • Cotton
    • Cotton, one of the most important cash crops of India may witness drop in acreage in the coming season as farmers may shift to more lucrative crops like Soybean in Maharashtra and Guar in Rajasthan.
    • North India, Cotton sowing is completed in the irrigated areas. However, in other parts it commences with the onset of monsoon.
  • Sugarcane
    • Sugarcane planting is almost completed across India with acreage higher so far by around 4.6% at 52.2 lakh hectares.
    • The cane crop is in the growing phase and thus southwest monsoon is very crucial to maintain yield of the crop.
    • Expectations of below normal rains might affect sugarcane and thereby sugar output in 2012-13 and this has led to the upside in sugar prices in the last 2-3 weeks.
  • Spices
    • Turmeric and red chilli sowing in the southern regions of the country, the hub of spices, starts with the onset of monsoons.
    • However, this year sowing of Chilli in Guntur and adjoining areas have commenced on slow pace and is likely to gather pace only by the mid of July on account of inadequate rainfall.
    • With respect to Turmeric, sowing is expected to decline this year as farmers may shift to other remunerative crops. AP contributes 50% in the total Turmeric output in India.
    • Normal acreage under turmeric in A.P. is around 67000 hectares. However, till now only 7000 hectares area has been covered so far.

Food Grain Price: Inflation in India

  • The Primary Articles inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the month of June 2012, decreased to 10.46% from the level of 10.88% in the month of May, 2012. The inflation rate was 11.31% during the corresponding period of last year.
  • Among the foodgrains, inflation for Rice has increased to 7.46% from the previous month’s level of 5.07%, Wheat to 6.82% from the previous month’s level of 6.81%, Cereals to 6.74% from the previous month’s level of 5.73% and Pulses to 20.48% from the previous month’s level of 16.61%.
  • The inflation for non-food items has decreased to 6.85% from the previous month’s level of 8.47% and for the food items has increased to 10.81% from the previous month’s level of 10.74%.

Percentage Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

 

Conclusion: Impact of below average rainfall on the Kharif Crop Prices

  • As far as the monsoon is concerned, the current predictions of South west monsoon rainfall at 96% of LPA do not point towards a major downfall in the production of Kharif crops.
  • However, in addition to the overall monsoon rainfall, the even and timely distribution across regions and its withdrawal also plays crucial role in the determining the output of any agricultural commodity.
  • In the past few weeks, we have noticed that the prices of almost all the Kharif agri commodities have witnessed a rise.
  • However, the extent of the gains varied depending on the existing fundamentals of the commodity. It is very early to predict the impact of below normal rains on sowing and yield of Kharif crops because if the monsoon recovers in the month of July as predicted by IMD, then it may boost the sowing which was lagging behind in the month of June.
  • Thus, the monsoon progress has to be watched closely in the coming days to get a clearer picture other crop prospects for this season.

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