Indian Agriculture and Tractor Industry Update: July 2012
- Overview of current Demand & Supply side factors indicates a moderate growth (8-10%) scenario for 2012-13 tractor market in India.
- The Agriculture sector in India still has tremendous growth potential but the monsoon 2012 has been lower than normal in the key contributing Tractor Market (UP, Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Haryana, Punjab), triggering concern on drought like situation in some states.
- Govt. support for Agriculture sector in terms of significant increase in MSPs continue
- Growth of non-agri usage may improve as the Govt. is expected to focuses on Infrastructure development as key area to revive the Economic Growth in India.
- The policy paralysis and visible lack of governance is as much, if not a bigger, reason for this gloomy outlook as the deficient monsoon.
Demand Side Factors
- Agriculture Sector: Deficient monsoon: A big cause of concern
- Major crop output to fall by 0.5% in 2012-13: CMIE
- “Major crop production is projected to decline in 2012-13 by 0.5%, owing to a fall in output of non-food crops like soyabean, cotton and rapeseed,” the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly report.
- Cotton production is expected to fall by 7.8% to 32.2 million bales in 2012-13 even though the acreage rose by over 12% to 29.3 lakh hectares by June.
- “We expect the cultivation to slow down and settle at level lower than last year. Hence, a fall in acreage is expected to limit production in 2012-13,” it said.
- Kharif cultivation of foodgrains and oilseeds has been sluggish due to delayed rains.
- Weak precipitation has dampened the Central government’s efforts and kharif sowing have been undertaken on a mere 127 lakh hectares by June 29, lower by 12% year-on-year, it said.
- The Prime Minister’s Office has sounded an alert over a deficient monsoon
- Directing ministries to help states facing drought-like situations by operationalizing contingency plans to distribute seeds, augment fodder and power and deal with drinking water shortages.
- Food minister K V Thomas indicated that drought is impending in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and western Rajasthan.
- PMO is monitoring the progress of the kharif season on a weekly basis. “There is a reduction of eight million hectares in crop area sown compared to last year,” the release says.
- Thomas feels rice production will not be majorly impacted. “Food grain production and sugarcane will remain more or less the same. The problem is with pulses and oilseeds. These are the two crops, where production will come down,” he said.
- Sowing of coarse grains like millet, jowar and ragi is short by 30 lakh hectares compared to normal and this is unlikely to be made up.
- There are concerns over the paddy crop in Haryana, Punjab and UP
- Although Indian Meteorological Department which predicted a normal monsoon this year allows for a 4% plus-minus error in its predictions, PMO has spelt out this year rainfall is likely to be at the lower end of the range or around 92% of LPA
- Key 5 states for Tractor market in India (UP, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP) that accounted for 56% of FY12 domestic tractor demand have received scanty / deficient rainfall – defined as rainfall that is 20-99% below the long period average. Only coastal Maharashtra has had normal rainfall.
- Major crop output to fall by 0.5% in 2012-13: CMIE
- A deficient monsoon doesn’t impact tractor volumes directly but it is an important contributing factor. But with the other growth drivers being being mixed it heightens risks to Tractor sales volumes.
- MSPs (Minimum Support Prices) for crops continue to be hiked (up 15-30% for key crops like rice, wheat, cotton, etc) – this is positive for tractor volumes
- In order to boost cultivation of Kharif crops, the Centre had announced a steep increase in their minimum support price (MSP) last month.
- The MSP of paddy was raised by 15.7%, while that of maize and bajra by over 20% for 2012-13.
- Govt. Expenditure in Rural India – NREGA outlays are declining – down ~5% Y/Y in FY12, FY13 also appears to have had a soft start in terms of outlays.
- Non Agri usage of Tractor is on high growth path in India in the last decade. With the continuing focus on infrastructure development & growth in construction industry this will continue to enable a study growth for Tractor for Non-Agri purpose.
Supply Side Factors
- Tractor industry manufacturing capacities have grown at 9% CAGR over the past four years (FY08-FY12).
- The industry was remarkably disciplined from the perspective of capacity creation and Pricing.
- Capacity utilization was ~81% in FY12 for the industry.
- Over FY13/FY14, capacity utilization is expected to dip to 70%, expecting a demand growth of 10% CAGR.
- Over FY13/FY14, Industry-wide capacities should increase at ~18.5% CAGR over the next two years.
- Key players (e.g. M&M & TAFE) are increasing capacities meaningfully (+38%/+33% respectively).
- Pricing could also be weaker, though this will be impacted by the demand environment.
Indian Tractor Market Trends
- Monsoon delay hits sowing of kharif crops (thehindu.com)
- Drought looms large over more States (thehindu.com)
- Sowing area down by 24% in Gujarat on deficient rains (news.in.msn.com)
- Monsoon in India Set for Worst in Three Years Hurting Crops – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Deficient monsoon: Govt. to announce steps to control prices (thehindu.com)
- Shadow of drought: Agriculture secretary raises red flag as monsoon proves elusive (dailymail.co.uk)
- India to Review Farm-Export Rules, Curb Hoarding on Weak Monsoon – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Monsoon plays truant but agriculture minister Pawar insists all is well (dailymail.co.uk)
- Weakest Monsoon Since 2009 to Shrink India Rice Harvest – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)